Türkiye
Turkey's central bank raises its 2026 inflation forecast to 29.5% and lifts its targets for the next two years
Developing
- What happened
- The central bank raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast from 28% to 29.5% in its last Inflation Report of the year.
- Why it matters
- It also raised its 2027 and 2028 targets sharply, while this year's 24% interim target stayed, now 5.5 points below the bank's own forecast.
- What’s next
- Governor Fatih Karahan said policy will stay tight and that the fall in annual inflation may pause in November.
How this story developed
- 11:12First report
- 11:132nd source
- 11:13Confirmed
- 12:11+2 outlets in 46 min
- 13:455th source
- 15:316th source
- 11:12First reportDiken
- 11:132nd sourceCumhuriyet
- 11:13ConfirmedWas: Single source
- 12:11+2 outlets in 46 minEuronews Türkçe and BBC Türkçe
- 13:455th sourceDW Türkçe
- 15:31Latest6th sourceHabertürk
Full story
The new numbers
Turkey's central bank (TCMB) raised its inflation forecasts again on Thursday, 12 November, in its fourth and last Inflation Report of 2026. Governor Fatih Karahan, who presented the report in Istanbul, said the bank now expects inflation to end this year at 29.5%, up from the 28% it forecast in August.
The outlook for the following years moved by more. The 2027 forecast and interim target went from 15% to 21%, and the 2028 target from 9% to 13.5%. The bank now expects inflation to fall to 9% only at the end of 2029, before settling at its medium-term target of 5%.
According to Euronews Türkçe, the 24% interim target for this year was left unchanged, which puts the gap between what the bank aims for and what it expects at 5.5 points.
What the bank blames
Karahan put the slower fall in inflation down to energy. He said crude oil and natural gas prices rose markedly in September and October and remain above both the level of the previous report and the level before the war, and that annual inflation in the energy group has reached 51.4%. By October, he said, annual inflation was falling in every main group except energy, while food prices stayed volatile.
“Supply-side shocks caused by geopolitical developments are limiting the fall in headline inflation. If this continues, it keeps the upside risks to the inflation outlook alive and calls for a cautious stance.”
Fatih Karahan, Euronews Türkçe(translated)
He said the bank would keep its tight monetary policy stance. He added that early data for November show vegetable prices still rising, so the fall in annual inflation may pause this month. The report also said the lira’s “moderate course” had eased cost pressure from imports.
The eighteenth revision
Cumhuriyet counted this as the 18th time since 2021 that the bank has raised a year-end forecast: ten times under former governor Şahap Kavcıoğlu between 2021 and 2023, once under Hafize Gaye Erkan in July 2023, and seven times under Karahan since 2024.
The newspaper noted that the bank's first forecast for 2026 was 9%. It was raised to 26% in May, to 28% in August and now to 29.5%, which is 20.5 points above where it started.
DW Türkçe reported the revision under a headline saying the war with Iran had upset the bank's calculations. In a second piece, Cumhuriyet argued that the war does not explain the gap, pointing to official inflation figures in countries that are directly involved in the fighting.